Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -6.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -6.1 (-3.1) | 154.0 (+3.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -6.7 (-3.7) | 151.3 (+5.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -6.0 (-3.0) | 152.0 (+5.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -6.3 (-3.3) | 151.7 (+5.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALA 90 – 83 LSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALA 109 – 92 LSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ALA 109 – 88 LSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ALA 79 – 69 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#15) | 13.3 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#36) | 2.33 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#27) | 2.82 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#36) | 0.629 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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