Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -1.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -1.1 (-2.1) | 138.1 (+18.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -1.3 (-2.3) | 143.8 (+13.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -1.6 (-2.6) | 143.7 (+13.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -1.7 (-2.7) | 142.0 (+15.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2025 | DRKE 68 – 60 MOST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DRKE 69 – 62 MOST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MOST 83 – 80 DRKE |
| Dec 2, 2023 | DRKE 74 – 57 MOST |
| Jan 19, 2023 | MOST 65 – 62 DRKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-6 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#63) | 6.8 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#102) | 0.92 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#85) | 1.06 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#72) | 0.538 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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