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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–13 on winners spread MAE 8.3 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Omaha @ South Dakota State +18.7 163.4 89% 79–87 ✓
Jacksonville @ Jacksonville State +5.9 131.7 69% 54–51 ✗
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State +2.4 147.4 65% 72–73 ✓
Georgetown @ Xavier +12.8 151.4 86% 75–97 ✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian +7.4 136.2 78% 56–61 ✓
Brown @ Yale +5.7 144.0 73% 65–74 ✓
Oregon State @ Washington +9.1 150.2 82% 67–78 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner +9.1 149.8 82% 62–82 ✓
Southern Utah @ Weber State +3.0 152.3 65% 80–70 ✗
McNeese @ Houston Christian +0.3 148.3 46% 144–149 ✓
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +12.9 138.1 88% 53–70 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley -8.5 149.2 21% 93–63 ✓
Morehead State @ Murray State +7.4 135.9 78% 67–71 ✓
Georgia Southern @ App State +4.0 129.7 67% 60–73 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford -0.1 135.4 51% 64–66 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +8.5 142.9 81% 77–78 ✓
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M +4.1 137.7 69% 64–67 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State +3.3 136.2 63% 68–71 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton +4.2 138.6 70% 59–62 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +4.1 159.8 67% 77–85 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana +7.3 136.2 76% 72–71 ✗
Utah Valley @ New Mexico State +6.5 135.4 75% 46–62 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota State +7.3 143.9 77% 62–82 ✓
Colorado @ Utah -0.5 140.7 46% 84–71 ✓
USC @ UCLA +9.7 145.3 81% 68–75 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge -6.1 130.9 27% 84–62 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly -0.4 134.7 48% 76–80 ✗
BYU @ San Francisco +2.8 145.4 59% 63–75 ✓
San Diego State @ Nevada -5.2 134.7 27% 79–78 ✓
UNLV @ New Mexico -2.4 148.9 38% 67–76 ✗
Portland @ Santa Clara +6.6 155.7 76% 67–91 ✓
Houston @ Memphis -1.9 142.3 39% 61–75 ✗
Northeastern @ Towson +11.1 133.0 85% 61–68 ✓
Winthrop @ Longwood -0.7 145.4 47% 58–79 ✗
Penn State @ Rutgers +4.2 129.8 67% 58–59 ✓
Michigan @ Ohio State +4.4 148.8 71% 75–69 ✗
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +2.9 144.9 67% 85–93 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire +4.6 132.0 69% 72–69 ✗
Nebraska @ Wisconsin +13.6 148.6 88% 74–73 ✗
NJIT @ Vermont +18.2 136.0 91% 59–98 ✓
UAlbany @ Hartford +1.8 137.7 59% 49–61 ✓
Lehigh @ Colgate +12.4 147.2 87% 61–81 ✓
UCF @ Tulsa -2.8 138.4 36% 72–73 ✗
South Florida @ Temple +8.2 131.4 79% 47–75 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Drake -5.2 134.6 30% 64–58 ✓
Delaware @ Drexel -0.2 141.8 49% 66–56 ✓
Tulane @ SMU +6.7 147.6 76% 68–74 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +4.1 130.7 69% 80–85 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +2.3 135.9 61% 56–79 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +6.6 145.7 71% 67–77 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +2.9 138.3 64% 58–75 ✓
Louisiana @ Troy +0.4 136.6 51% 66–57 ✗
Samford @ Furman +7.3 150.2 77% 68–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.