Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | UCLA -350 USC +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -9.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -9.0 (-2.0) | 141.3 (+1.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -9.7 (-2.7) | 145.3 (-2.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -10.1 (-3.1) | 145.9 (-2.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -11.2 (-4.2) | 144.5 (-1.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#10) | 11.1 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#16) | 2.73 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.67 (#14) | 3.02 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#13) | 0.592 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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