Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | FUR -420 SAM +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -9.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -8.3 (-5.3) | 149.0 (-10.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -7.3 (-4.3) | 150.2 (-11.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -6.5 (-3.5) | 150.4 (-11.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -6.4 (-3.4) | 149.0 (-10.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#75) | -1.6 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#103) | 0.68 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#98) | 0.52 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#64) | 0.524 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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