Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -3.3 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -3.7 (+12.7) | 147.2 (-4.2) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -2.4 (+11.4) | 148.9 (-5.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -2.6 (+11.6) | 149.1 (-6.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -2.8 (+11.8) | 148.9 (-5.9) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UNM 89 – 61 UNLV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UNM 81 – 67 UNLV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNM 75 – 73 UNLV |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNLV 80 – 77 UNM |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UNLV 83 – 73 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#158) | 6.4 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#161) | 1.38 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#152) | 1.80 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#159) | 0.553 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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