Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +30 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -8.8 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -8.4 (-21.6) | 148.5 (+7.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -8.5 (-21.5) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -9.4 (-20.6) | 151.1 (+4.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -10.6 (-19.4) | 149.8 (+6.2) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SFA 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 4, 2025 | SFA 73 – 60 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2025 | SFA 85 – 75 RGV |
| Dec 6, 2024 | RGV 68 – 65 SFA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SFA 92 – 84 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 14-4 |
| Home | 4-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#298) | 3.5 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#324) | 1.02 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#318) | 0.90 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#283) | 0.563 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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