Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +22 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -13.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -11.2 (+10.8) | 153.2 (+18.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -12.8 (+9.2) | 151.4 (+20.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -12.6 (+9.4) | 153.4 (+18.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -12.4 (+9.6) | 154.8 (+17.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | XAV 91 – 84 GTWN |
| Dec 21, 2025 | XAV 80 – 77 GTWN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | XAV 74 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GTWN 69 – 63 XAV |
| Mar 3, 2024 | XAV 98 – 93 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 0-19 |
| Home | 16-5 | 6-11 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W5 | L21 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | 0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#39) | -0.59 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#40) | -0.43 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#56) | 0.448 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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