Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | UNCW -180 ELON +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -3.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -2.4 (+14.6) | 134.7 (-1.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.9 (+14.1) | 138.3 (-5.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.0 (+14.0) | 137.8 (-4.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -3.8 (+13.2) | 137.3 (-4.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#197) | -5.2 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#114) | -0.73 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#137) | -0.77 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#116) | 0.479 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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