Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -5.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -3.6 (-0.6) | 135.6 (-14.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -4.2 (-1.2) | 138.6 (-17.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -4.1 (-1.1) | 138.7 (-17.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -4.5 (-1.5) | 138.4 (-17.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 70 UCD |
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 92 UCD |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCD 74 – 69 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCD 65 – 49 CSUF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCD 63 – 53 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 5-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#162) | -2.3 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#156) | -0.36 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#163) | -0.54 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#156) | 0.465 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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