Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -4.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+38.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -4.9 (+0.1) | 127.9 (+37.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.1 (+0.9) | 130.7 (+34.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.0 (+1.0) | 132.2 (+32.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -4.5 (+0.5) | 132.1 (+32.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#176) | -2.1 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#179) | -0.40 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#177) | -0.61 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#154) | 0.493 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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