Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CP -105 UCSD -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -0.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -1.5 (+5.5) | 135.9 (+20.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -0.4 (+4.4) | 134.7 (+21.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -0.1 (+4.1) | 137.0 (+19.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -0.2 (+4.2) | 134.5 (+21.5) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 69 CP |
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 64 CP |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CP 67 – 65 UCSD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSD 81 – 67 CP |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSD 95 – 68 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-21 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 0-0 |
| Home | 4-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.6 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#306) | -5.2 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#321) | -0.78 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#300) | -0.77 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#327) | 0.453 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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