Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -0.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -1.3 (+3.3) | 132.3 (-2.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -0.1 (+2.1) | 135.4 (-5.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.3 (+2.3) | 136.6 (-6.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.9 (+2.9) | 135.2 (-5.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#201) | -0.7 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#119) | 0.35 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#132) | 0.22 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#132) | 0.516 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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