Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +5 | 293 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -0.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+147.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -0.8 (+4.2) | 145.0 (+148.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -0.3 (+4.7) | 148.3 (+144.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -0.1 (+4.9) | 150.8 (+142.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -0.5 (+4.5) | 150.1 (+142.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | MCN 73 – 69 HCU |
| Dec 16, 2025 | MCN 78 – 68 HCU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MCN 75 – 59 HCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MCN 87 – 69 HCU |
| Feb 13, 2024 | MCN 105 – 54 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 4-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#343) | -9.5 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#343) | -2.14 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#339) | -2.35 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#338) | 0.438 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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