Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +17 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -16.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -15.7 (+1.3) | 137.6 (-14.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -12.9 (+4.1) | 138.1 (-15.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -14.4 (+2.6) | 138.7 (-15.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -14.8 (+2.2) | 138.3 (-15.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | GCU 90 – 68 UTU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | GCU 79 – 66 UTU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | GCU 73 – 61 UTU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | GCU 75 – 65 UTU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | GCU 71 – 61 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-8 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#92) | -7.1 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#89) | -0.78 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#91) | -1.22 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#101) | 0.464 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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