Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -6.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -7.1 (+12.9) | 143.9 (+0.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -7.3 (+12.7) | 143.9 (+0.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -6.6 (+13.4) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -6.4 (+13.6) | 144.3 (-0.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#185) | -7.3 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#132) | -1.48 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#150) | -1.72 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#128) | 0.430 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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