Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +5 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -7.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -9.0 (-4.0) | 136.1 (-19.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -7.4 (-2.4) | 136.2 (-19.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -7.5 (-2.5) | 136.8 (-19.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -6.6 (-1.6) | 136.7 (-19.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#127) | -2.2 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#137) | -0.52 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#131) | -0.39 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#148) | 0.492 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.5% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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