Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | TROY +110 UL -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +9 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -0.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -0.2 (-8.8) | 136.4 (-13.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -0.4 (-9.4) | 136.6 (-13.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -0.3 (-9.3) | 137.0 (-14.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -0.4 (-9.4) | 137.3 (-14.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TROY 78 – 59 UL |
| Jan 10, 2026 | TROY 90 – 70 UL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UL 72 – 69 TROY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TROY 74 – 56 UL |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TROY 87 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#188) | -1.1 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#127) | -0.14 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#124) | -0.11 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#142) | 0.491 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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