Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -3.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -4.1 (+3.9) | 161.6 (+0.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -4.1 (+3.9) | 159.8 (+2.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -4.2 (+3.8) | 161.2 (+0.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -3.9 (+4.1) | 161.5 (+0.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 8-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#45) | 9.6 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#29) | 1.54 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#35) | 2.26 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#52) | 0.520 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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