Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -3.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+35.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -3.6 (+4.4) | 145.0 (+33.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.9 (+5.1) | 144.9 (+33.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.6 (+5.4) | 146.4 (+31.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -3.6 (+4.4) | 146.2 (+31.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#238) | -4.3 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#227) | -1.17 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#234) | -1.55 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#211) | 0.461 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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