Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -9.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -9.0 (+11.0) | 151.5 (-7.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -9.1 (+10.9) | 149.8 (-5.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -8.5 (+11.5) | 152.8 (-8.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -9.6 (+10.4) | 153.3 (-9.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | LIU 64 – 56 WAG |
| Feb 17, 2026 | LIU 83 – 65 WAG |
| Feb 13, 2026 | LIU 67 – 57 WAG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LIU 60 – 47 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-6 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#132) | -4.3 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#122) | -0.85 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#120) | -0.90 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#102) | 0.505 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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