Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -12.2 (-5.2) | 147.7 (-4.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.3 (-4.3) | 147.3 (-4.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.6 (-3.6) | 147.8 (-4.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -11.0 (-4.0) | 147.2 (-4.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#17) | 6.4 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#20) | 1.29 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#17) | 1.73 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#35) | 0.510 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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