Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +19 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -12.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -11.5 (-7.5) | 132.7 (+4.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -10.4 (-8.6) | 133.4 (+3.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -10.0 (-9.0) | 135.2 (+1.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -10.1 (-8.9) | 132.5 (+4.5) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BTLR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BTLR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BTLR |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#134) | 17.3 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#92) | 3.23 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#87) | 3.84 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#174) | 0.633 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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