Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +1 | 99 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -6.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.1 (+3.1) | 133.3 (-34.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.8 (+2.8) | 133.1 (-34.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -4.3 (+3.3) | 133.9 (-34.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -3.6 (+2.6) | 135.4 (-36.4) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | SOU 88 – 85 AAMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SOU 71 – 57 AAMU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | AAMU 66 – 56 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-14 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.4 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#329) | -1.8 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#309) | -0.68 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#315) | -0.91 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#297) | 0.487 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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