Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -9.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -7.9 (+6.1) | 141.2 (+4.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -7.6 (+6.4) | 144.0 (+2.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -7.9 (+6.1) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -7.7 (+6.3) | 141.8 (+4.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#77) | -2.1 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#106) | 0.09 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#103) | 0.02 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#66) | 0.514 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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