Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -2.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -3.0 (+3.0) | 130.2 (+27.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -2.3 (+3.7) | 131.9 (+26.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -3.0 (+3.0) | 132.8 (+25.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -2.7 (+3.3) | 132.4 (+25.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | DAY 70 – 59 DAV |
| Feb 5, 2025 | DAY 69 – 63 DAV |
| Feb 28, 2024 | DAY 80 – 66 DAV |
| Jan 4, 2024 | DAY 72 – 59 DAV |
| Jan 18, 2023 | DAY 68 – 61 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#52) | 9.5 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#76) | 2.44 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#66) | 2.59 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#64) | 0.601 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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