Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +10 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -2.1 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.3 (-8.7) | 130.4 (+1.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.8 (-8.2) | 130.8 (+1.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -1.5 (-8.5) | 131.7 (+0.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.5 (-8.5) | 132.0 (-0.0) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#131) | 7.1 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#134) | 1.26 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#131) | 1.55 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#164) | 0.538 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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