Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | DUKE -700 UNC +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +13 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -11.2 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -10.1 (-23.1) | 157.0 (+18.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -12.2 (-25.2) | 157.8 (+17.2) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -10.3 (-23.3) | 157.8 (+17.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -10.8 (-23.8) | 157.9 (+17.1) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#6) | 10.3 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#11) | 2.06 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.44 (#2) | 2.43 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#14) | 0.595 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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