Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | ALCN -650 UAPB +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +23 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -12.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -10.4 (+12.6) | 144.3 (+32.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -11.3 (+11.7) | 144.6 (+32.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -11.0 (+12.0) | 145.4 (+31.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -11.3 (+11.7) | 143.5 (+33.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 9-13 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#267) | -15.7 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#242) | -2.83 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#246) | -3.48 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#184) | 0.410 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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