Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -1.3 (+1.7) | 143.5 (+9.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -1.6 (+1.4) | 146.7 (+6.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.8 (+1.2) | 149.1 (+3.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -1.4 (+1.6) | 146.1 (+6.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-6 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-15 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#313) | -9.3 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#337) | -1.67 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#332) | -2.04 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#324) | 0.444 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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