Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +31 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -0.9 (+30.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -0.4 (+30.6) | 134.1 (+0.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -1.0 (+30.0) | 134.7 (+0.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.6 (+30.4) | 135.2 (-0.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -0.6 (+30.4) | 136.2 (-1.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#214) | -0.4 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#217) | -0.43 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#220) | -0.42 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#203) | 0.486 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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