Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +23 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -13.7 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -14.3 (-8.7) | 138.5 (-11.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -10.9 (-12.1) | 141.0 (-14.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -11.4 (-11.6) | 140.7 (-13.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -12.2 (-10.8) | 139.8 (-12.8) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#287) | 9.2 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#236) | 1.16 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#235) | 1.77 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#282) | 0.548 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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