Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +16 | 98 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -6.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (-26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -6.4 (+9.6) | 127.5 (-29.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -6.4 (+9.6) | 130.1 (-32.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -6.7 (+9.3) | 130.8 (-32.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -6.5 (+9.5) | 131.7 (-33.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#138) | -2.4 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#152) | -0.70 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#151) | -0.92 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#97) | 0.469 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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