If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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70–18 on winners spread MAE 6.8 88 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Missouri State +8.7 145.7 80% 58–67 ✓
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +4.0 140.9 71% 65–72 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) +4.6 152.8 72% 63–76 ✓
Central Michigan @ Akron +13.8 139.5 88% 56–57 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +4.5 142.4 69% 53–81 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +14.8 148.9 88% 74–88 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -8.7 141.4 26% 57–58 ✗
Campbell @ Gardner-Webb +2.5 130.5 59% 53–54 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ BYU +9.2 147.1 82% 60–85 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +3.1 131.4 68% 52–65 ✓
Morehead State @ Belmont +5.1 141.6 69% 53–51 ✗
Utah State @ San José State -11.4 140.7 17% 75–52 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +2.5 139.9 65% 55–73 ✓
Villanova @ Butler -10.0 135.2 16% 78–59 ✓
Arkansas @ Tennessee +6.2 140.9 80% 74–78 ✓
Alabama @ LSU +6.0 152.0 80% 77–80 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +6.8 142.0 74% 70–79 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +9.9 146.2 83% 66–71 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville -1.5 131.7 34% 71–61 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +1.9 136.5 64% 78–82 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State +3.7 136.6 66% 79–72 ✗
Davidson @ Dayton +3.0 132.8 66% 76–82 ✓
South Carolina @ Auburn +13.6 149.0 88% 71–82 ✓
Miami @ Syracuse +0.8 157.3 52% 75–72 ✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +6.7 130.8 78% 41–57 ✓
Marist @ Niagara +0.6 135.2 56% 52–83 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Iona +13.6 150.3 88% 61–79 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida -3.2 146.2 36% 71–63 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +10.2 145.4 85% 67–69 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Old Dominion -2.2 135.8 39% 64–68 ✗
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic +10.9 139.8 85% 76–84 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Clemson -0.7 137.1 53% 59–63 ✗
NC State @ Florida State +6.3 149.2 76% 76–89 ✓
Dartmouth @ Harvard +2.4 133.8 58% 76–54 ✗
TCU @ West Virginia +1.0 138.6 53% 64–70 ✓
George Washington @ Fordham +3.9 138.9 69% 66–70 ✓
La Salle @ Duquesne -0.5 138.6 45% 85–76 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +1.2 140.0 61% 67–76 ✓
VMI @ Wofford +3.5 144.4 69% 66–68 ✓
Seton Hall @ Creighton +1.7 138.3 62% 65–60 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame +13.2 138.8 88% 54–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Saint Joseph's +0.6 134.3 52% 60–70 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State -2.0 130.9 42% 51–52 ✗
Little Rock @ Troy +7.8 135.4 78% 62–69 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +9.1 140.8 80% 62–70 ✓
Stanford @ Arizona State +5.3 131.5 75% 56–65 ✓
Rice @ UTSA -3.6 152.0 38% 71–82 ✗
North Texas @ UTEP -3.9 125.9 30% 68–70 ✗
Marshall @ Western Kentucky +11.5 156.4 86% 69–78 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UAB +7.7 145.0 79% 74–87 ✓
Charlotte @ Southern Miss -7.8 144.5 21% 70–67 ✓
California Baptist @ Lamar -9.5 135.9 18% 78–66 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Northern Iowa -5.5 144.4 32% 66–43 ✓
Georgia @ Missouri +5.6 143.8 79% 69–79 ✓
Texas @ Kansas +6.3 145.3 77% 63–70 ✓
Oregon @ Washington State +3.8 144.1 71% 74–94 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -5.7 129.4 26% 66–61 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M +3.9 134.7 63% 73–84 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State -1.2 164.4 35% 85–80 ✓
Chicago State @ Seattle U +16.2 140.1 90% 66–74 ✓
Cornell @ Columbia -10.1 155.7 17% 78–64 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas State +1.2 137.9 52% 78–71 ✗
VCU @ Saint Louis +2.7 138.3 63% 65–69 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Mason +7.3 151.3 78% 83–80 ✗
Siena @ Canisius +1.3 138.0 59% 64–67 ✓
Monmouth @ Rider -3.2 135.7 40% 65–74 ✗
Fresno State @ Wyoming +4.1 130.1 71% 64–68 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls +4.6 155.5 76% 85–92 ✓
California @ Arizona +18.6 146.3 90% 61–89 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +10.6 147.8 86% 68–75 ✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary -7.3 132.6 23% 68–63 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M -4.3 133.9 36% 50–49 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho +2.5 148.8 65% 69–78 ✓
Portland State @ Eastern Washington +4.8 155.3 71% 75–83 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word -5.3 147.4 25% 77–68 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +1.8 149.1 59% 75–78 ✓
Iowa State @ Baylor +11.2 134.7 88% 68–75 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +10.3 157.8 81% 94–81 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Bryant +4.9 144.2 75% 69–70 ✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia State +1.3 135.1 57% 62–65 ✓
Drake @ Missouri State +1.6 143.7 56% 79–78 ✗
Bellarmine @ Liberty +8.2 143.6 79% 53–50 ✗
Mercer @ Furman +7.9 143.7 78% 66–80 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +11.0 145.4 88% 77–100 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana State +6.0 156.2 73% 85–87 ✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania -3.0 155.3 35% 93–70 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss +0.8 143.7 53% 63–61 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +12.3 139.5 88% 69–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.