Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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57–13 on winners spread MAE 8.7 70 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Houston +16.4 138.8 90% 46–84 ✓
Penn State @ Illinois +10.8 137.5 87% 55–60 ✓
Michigan State @ Ohio State +4.1 147.8 72% 69–80 ✓
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.4 153.0 76% 72–78 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +2.8 138.7 65% 59–77 ✓
Oakland @ Wright State +0.5 148.1 55% 63–75 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +14.1 154.5 89% 68–96 ✓
American University @ Navy +10.4 128.4 85% 64–71 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +4.9 137.8 74% 64–76 ✓
Army @ Lehigh +0.4 144.6 55% 77–91 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State +2.0 149.7 57% 53–58 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville +12.9 139.4 87% 69–79 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State +7.4 145.5 79% 67–78 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine +0.5 150.0 52% 68–81 ✓
Lipscomb @ Liberty +11.9 154.1 87% 47–52 ✓
Cincinnati @ SMU +6.7 139.2 78% 71–76 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida International -1.9 141.2 40% 71–51 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth +9.1 142.6 82% 72–75 ✓
Iona @ Manhattan -7.9 149.2 20% 72–74 ✗
Siena @ Niagara +1.9 132.4 61% 52–74 ✓
Marist @ Canisius -2.7 138.7 34% 67–78 ✗
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State -1.1 151.2 47% 55–79 ✗
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central +3.8 142.4 65% 62–67 ✓
Howard @ Norfolk State +5.4 145.4 76% 61–83 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State +1.7 151.3 53% 63–59 ✗
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +11.6 134.7 87% 59–63 ✓
Tarleton State @ Sam Houston +3.4 130.6 67% 50–69 ✓
Rider @ Fairfield +4.0 135.8 67% 59–65 ✓
TCU @ Kansas +10.4 148.1 84% 68–72 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State +10.5 151.3 86% 67–83 ✓
UCF @ Tulane +2.3 147.4 64% 67–82 ✓
California @ Arizona State +5.7 132.5 74% 44–71 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama A&M +0.8 134.5 51% 63–71 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -11.7 130.2 12% 59–48 ✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +12.0 145.5 87% 64–80 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +5.5 133.9 74% 70–64 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +10.0 133.8 84% 79–87 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +14.5 147.7 89% 69–72 ✓
Stanford @ Arizona +16.6 150.6 89% 69–81 ✓
Iowa @ Michigan +0.5 156.4 54% 82–71 ✗
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +4.0 143.8 68% 66–86 ✓
Southern @ Alabama State -5.2 148.9 32% 67–77 ✗
Memphis @ South Florida -11.2 131.2 17% 73–64 ✓
Rice @ UTEP +5.0 147.9 71% 67–70 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +10.6 140.7 85% 69–75 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +1.0 153.9 55% 75–66 ✗
Southern Utah @ Idaho State -7.0 145.1 21% 79–71 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho -0.5 155.6 39% 79–68 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +10.2 146.8 87% 62–69 ✓
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon +5.2 132.7 70% 57–68 ✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso +6.6 134.1 79% 59–81 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +6.9 143.8 75% 56–73 ✓
Oregon @ Washington -1.8 145.2 45% 67–78 ✗
UC Davis @ Long Beach State +5.2 146.4 69% 65–68 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara +4.2 138.7 69% 60–67 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.8 138.9 57% 72–70 ✗
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly -9.1 126.1 16% 54–65 ✗
Fresno State @ San Diego State +6.5 123.8 74% 64–65 ✓
Oregon State @ Washington State +14.2 149.7 88% 67–71 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +2.2 140.2 64% 75–72 ✗
Pepperdine @ San Diego +3.2 139.2 64% 67–74 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Longwood +7.5 138.3 75% 65–79 ✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa +6.3 154.2 76% 65–78 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +7.5 144.9 75% 62–72 ✓
Bradley @ Loyola Chicago +6.2 137.1 72% 50–66 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +3.6 148.9 68% 84–76 ✗
High Point @ Winthrop +4.1 147.9 68% 51–68 ✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan -1.8 149.5 40% 64–63 ✓
Buffalo @ Kent State +1.8 148.7 66% 65–70 ✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo +17.5 162.3 89% 56–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.