Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -17.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -13.1 (-10.1) | 148.5 (-7.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -14.1 (-11.1) | 146.9 (-5.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -14.5 (-11.5) | 147.7 (-6.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -13.4 (-10.4) | 149.3 (-8.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 2-26 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 2-16 |
| Home | 6-3 | 0-11 |
| Away | 9-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 83.0 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#265) | -19.8 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#244) | -3.88 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#250) | -4.52 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#192) | 0.353 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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