Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -700 AMER +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -14.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -12.3 (-5.3) | 122.3 (+12.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -10.8 (-3.8) | 129.1 (+5.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -10.4 (-3.4) | 128.4 (+6.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -10.6 (-3.6) | 128.4 (+6.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 11-5 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#167) | -12.0 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#179) | -1.83 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#176) | -2.19 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#153) | 0.415 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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