Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -5.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -3.1 (+2.9) | 135.3 (-11.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -4.2 (+1.8) | 136.3 (-12.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -4.0 (+2.0) | 135.8 (-11.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -4.5 (+1.5) | 137.6 (-13.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | FAIR 68 – 62 RID |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 49 RID |
| Dec 5, 2024 | FAIR 78 – 75 RID |
| Feb 9, 2024 | FAIR 84 – 67 RID |
| Dec 3, 2023 | FAIR 88 – 81 RID |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#213) | -5.3 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#242) | -0.98 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#245) | -1.19 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#236) | 0.449 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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