Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | SEMO -145 TNST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +24 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -0.3 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -0.0 (+24.0) | 149.2 (-15.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -1.5 (+25.5) | 151.2 (-17.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -1.1 (+25.1) | 151.2 (-17.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.0 (+25.0) | 150.9 (-16.9) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#263) | -5.8 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#281) | -1.50 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#278) | -1.75 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#258) | 0.425 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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