Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -3.2 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -1.8 (+12.8) | 139.5 (+5.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -2.8 (+13.8) | 138.0 (+7.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -2.7 (+13.7) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -2.3 (+13.3) | 140.4 (+4.6) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MRST 88 – 86 CAN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MRST 89 – 81 CAN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MRST 70 – 47 CAN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MRST 78 – 55 CAN |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MRST 80 – 71 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-15 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#267) | 0.0 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#266) | -0.34 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#282) | -0.28 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#250) | 0.490 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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