Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Big Sky Conference · Reed Gym · March 4, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread SUU -7.5 Away covered
O/U 140.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total IDST win
Actual SUU +8 150 Lost
Massey SUU -9.3 (+1.3) — —
Massey Totals — 139.9 (+10.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 15% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 15% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SUU -8.7 (+0.7) 142.0 (+8.0) 20% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SUU -6.9 (-1.1) 144.1 (+5.9) 22% ✓
Baseline ML SUU -7.0 (-1.0) 145.1 (+4.9) 21% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SUU -8.3 (+0.3) 145.0 (+5.0) 21% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 10, 2023 SUU 82 – 74 IDST
Dec 4, 2022 SUU 69 – 59 IDST
Jan 22, 2022 SUU 86 – 74 IDST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings IDST SUU
Overall 7-23 23-12
Conference 5-15 14-6
Home 5-8 13-3
Away 2-14 8-8
Neutral 0-1 2-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 62.4 75.9
Avg Pts Against 72.0 72.8
Massey -12.5 (#342) -0.5 (#176)
Bradley-Terry -2.11 (#329) 0.09 (#167)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.20 (#317) 0.04 (#177)
RPI 0.391 (#347) 0.523 (#130)
Shooting & Four Factors IDST SUU
FG% 41.0% 45.4%
3PT% 30.0% 34.2%
REB / G 31.8 36.5
OREB / G 9.3 9.8
AST / TO 0.74 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.5% 52.3%
TOV% 20.8% 17.1%
ORB% 27.2% 27.5%
FT Rate 22.3% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.2% 51.3%
Opp TOV% 16.8% 17.5%
DRB% 71.8% 76.7%
Opp FT Rate 25.7% 21.1%

Game Analysis

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