What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
America First Events Center · December 10, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SUU -4.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money SUU -175 / IDST +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total SUU win
Actual SUU +8 156 Won
Massey SUU -7.7 (+0.3) — —
Massey Totals — 148.5 (+7.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 86% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 91% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SUU -8.5 (-0.5) 138.2 (+17.8) 79% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SUU -5.3 (+2.7) 141.5 (+14.5) 71% ✓
Baseline ML SUU -5.4 (+2.6) 141.8 (+14.2) 66% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SUU -6.5 (+1.5) 137.9 (+18.1) 72% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 4, 2022 SUU 69 – 59 IDST
Mar 4, 2022 SUU 79 – 71 IDST
Jan 22, 2022 SUU 86 – 74 IDST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SUU IDST
Overall 10-21 14-20
Conference 5-15 7-11
Home 6-8 8-5
Away 3-13 4-13
Neutral 1-0 2-2
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak W1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.2 69.4
Avg Pts Against 77.8 71.8
Massey -0.8 (#185) -3.3 (#236)
Bradley-Terry -1.02 (#270) -1.68 (#306)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.03 (#244) -2.03 (#296)
RPI 0.462 (#239) 0.395 (#318)
Shooting & Four Factors SUU IDST
FG% 42.8% 45.1%
3PT% 33.1% 27.6%
REB / G 31.9 30.1
OREB / G 10.3 9.0
AST / TO 0.81 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.1% 50.1%
TOV% 17.3% 20.9%
ORB% 28.0% 28.9%
FT Rate 24.1% 20.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.9% 50.9%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 18.4%
DRB% 64.3% 67.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.6% 25.6%

Game Analysis

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