Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -3.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -1.5 (-4.5) | 134.2 (+12.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -2.4 (-5.4) | 139.5 (+7.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -2.2 (-5.2) | 140.2 (+6.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -2.8 (-5.8) | 138.8 (+8.2) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | CSUF 78 – 72 UCR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCR 81 – 72 CSUF |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCR 64 – 59 CSUF |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCR 75 – 68 CSUF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCR 84 – 74 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 9-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 64.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#155) | -0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#138) | 0.05 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#147) | -0.16 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#129) | 0.516 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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