Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +11 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -16.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -12.5 (+1.5) | 128.9 (-21.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -13.1 (+2.1) | 131.0 (-24.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -11.7 (+0.7) | 130.2 (-23.2) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -11.0 (+0.0) | 127.6 (-20.6) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNT 81 – 58 UTSA |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNT 81 – 62 UTSA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTSA 54 – 50 UNT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNT 72 – 57 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTSA 64 – 62 UNT |
Game Analysis
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