Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USD -4.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -2.0 (+5.0) | 138.8 (+2.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -2.9 (+4.1) | 138.0 (+3.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -3.2 (+3.8) | 139.2 (+1.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -3.2 (+3.8) | 139.4 (+1.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USD 92 – 88 PEPP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USD 83 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PEPP 88 – 81 USD |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | USD 57 – 52 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 1-15 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#217) | -6.9 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#172) | -1.38 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#161) | -1.50 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#200) | 0.425 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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