Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -4.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -4.2 (+0.8) | 142.4 (-13.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -3.8 (+1.2) | 141.4 (-12.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -3.8 (+1.2) | 142.4 (-13.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -3.5 (+1.5) | 144.2 (-15.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | SCST 80 – 64 NCCU |
| Feb 19, 2026 | SCST 85 – 72 NCCU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | SCST 88 – 67 NCCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | SCST 87 – 71 NCCU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NCCU 82 – 77 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 9-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#298) | -9.9 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#275) | -1.31 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#298) | -1.96 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#232) | 0.434 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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