Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -2.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -3.6 (+2.6) | 146.2 (-19.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -1.8 (+0.8) | 147.9 (-20.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -1.8 (+0.8) | 149.5 (-22.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -2.0 (+1.0) | 147.4 (-20.4) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | BALL 74 – 71 WMU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WMU 74 – 71 BALL |
| Mar 2, 2024 | WMU 78 – 76 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BALL 77 – 67 WMU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | WMU 78 – 68 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 9-10 |
| Home | 4-10 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#332) | -6.4 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#302) | -0.83 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#305) | -1.06 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#275) | 0.441 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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