We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–12 on winners spread MAE 8.1 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Texas A&M @ Alabama +8.1 153.3 78% 87–71 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Bryant +11.6 149.4 87% 59–73 ✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner +12.0 145.3 86% 53–82 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University +8.3 157.5 82% 75–82 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Mount St. Mary's +4.4 130.9 68% 48–78 ✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +14.1 147.4 87% 68–73 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Marshall -1.8 155.6 37% 86–72 ✓
Old Dominion @ Louisiana Tech +9.2 140.1 81% 54–67 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte -1.5 145.3 43% 56–60 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Clemson +10.4 140.5 84% 65–68 ✓
Notre Dame @ Florida State +0.1 146.1 48% 70–74 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State +4.5 134.0 71% 53–36 ✗
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island -2.2 137.9 40% 80–74 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -0.9 140.1 47% 48–49 ✗
Fordham @ Massachusetts +0.7 147.6 54% 73–81 ✓
Duquesne @ George Washington +4.6 137.5 75% 93–98 ✓
George Mason @ Davidson +8.7 140.7 83% 62–73 ✓
Rutgers @ Indiana +5.4 135.9 67% 66–63 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +2.2 136.9 61% 62–77 ✓
UAB @ Southern Miss -15.7 146.6 13% 81–68 ✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans +9.9 152.5 85% 74–75 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar -4.7 144.0 25% 67–63 ✓
UConn @ Creighton -1.5 142.2 51% 62–64 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +0.1 150.3 51% 86–75 ✗
Auburn @ Mississippi State -2.6 141.8 37% 81–68 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +2.5 140.2 70% 76–77 ✓
Presbyterian @ Campbell +2.5 129.2 58% 72–75 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulsa -2.7 139.7 35% 72–62 ✓
Marquette @ DePaul -0.5 149.7 48% 80–91 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ New Mexico State +6.2 139.4 71% 73–71 ✗
NC State @ Wake Forest +11.4 155.3 87% 76–101 ✓
Miami @ Boston College -3.4 146.1 34% 81–70 ✓
Minnesota @ Maryland +6.1 137.3 73% 73–84 ✓
Chicago State @ California Baptist +10.8 139.2 86% 53–62 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Austin Peay +0.0 140.9 47% 78–51 ✗
Wyoming @ UNLV +1.5 140.5 55% 57–64 ✓
UT Arlington @ Louisiana +1.7 138.7 60% 64–67 ✓
Little Rock @ South Alabama +10.7 136.5 83% 75–71 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Hartford +0.8 142.4 54% 83–73 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +4.1 140.5 69% 77–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.