Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -0.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.6 (-2.6) | 139.2 (+13.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -3.1 (-2.1) | 139.1 (+13.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.5 (-1.5) | 140.2 (+12.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -2.8 (-1.8) | 141.0 (+12.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#19) | 16.5 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#22) | 2.33 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#20) | 2.92 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#20) | 0.598 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 25.4% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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