Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +110 MARQ -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +11 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -2.2 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.8 (+11.8) | 151.0 (+20.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -0.7 (+11.7) | 148.7 (+22.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -0.5 (+11.5) | 149.7 (+21.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -0.2 (+11.2) | 150.9 (+20.1) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | DEP 62 – 51 MARQ |
| Jan 17, 2026 | DEP 80 – 75 MARQ |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MARQ 68 – 58 DEP |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MARQ 85 – 83 DEP |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MARQ 105 – 71 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#95) | 10.9 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#89) | 2.47 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#83) | 2.85 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#169) | 0.580 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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